Saturday, October 18, 2008

Election 2008: Mid October Analysis

Will Barrack Obama win? What would happen if the Bradley Effect plays a significant role in this election? This is a discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns. The theory of the Bradley effect is that the inaccurate polls have been skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

How ironic that John McCain’s best strategy is based of Obama’s primary mantra of hope. Hope the Bradley Effect has skewed polling significantly enough to error on the side of John McCain. In the past however we have seen with victories of President George W. Bush that a well-built political machine can overcome seemingly insurmountable odds. This is to the advantage of Barrack Obama who has put together the most disciplined political ground force seen in my life time.

No comments: